Captured by Minsk-2: why do we urgently need “Plan-B” for Donbas

In contrast to reflection regarding the pleasant statements of American guests on the Day of Independence, there were two extremely disturbing events for Ukraine. The first was the revelation of Mr. Hug in an interview to the “Dilova Stolytsya” (“Business Capital”). The second was a joint statement of Merkel and Macron appealing to Poroshenko and Putin to provide a ceasefire regime. Unfortunately, these are the first signals: if Kyiv, instead of elaborating policy options for the Donbas, continues to hope for the Minsk agreements, the balance of forces and the level of external support will change significantly within the next 6 -12 months. This may lead to new demands for unilateral concessions, for the resistance of which Ukraine may lack resources.

Igar Tyshkevich, an analyst at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, gave a competent assessment of these events in the publication of the info-analytical portal “Khvylya” (The Wave).